Well, after studying the behaviour for a day and causing two more limp situations, the tech at the dealership was correct- I'm now convinced the CAI air filter is plugging up with what is likely a combination of ice and re-crystallized road salt. Once you get into Northern Ontario they stop using salt and that in combination with colder temperatures and dew point conditions is likely the issue.
I essentially proved this by putting the scan gauge on IAT, WT, MAP, and TPS and studying the variables. I drove too fast on purpose to cause the 'limp mode' situation and sure enough at idle the motor was starving for air- normally revving the motor in neutral will see MAP around 3-4psi but this time it was at 12-13psi! Pulling a large vacuum just to idle, no wonder it would rev all chaotically.
So I hypothesize that if I pull over and wait ten minutes the heat from the motor will melt the ice crystals on the filter, and sure enough the car runs properly! I even figured out how fast I can go without plugging up the filter- above -12C (10F) the issue barely happens but as soon as temps get colder I have to slow down.. to 50mph if it's colder than -18C (0F).
So suspicions aside this issue appears solved- it's my fault for not switching to SRI before the road trip. SRI puts the air filter back in the engine bay to keep it warmer and dry.
Btw filter is K&N synthetic water resistant style so I can wash it when I get to my destination. I will follow up with pics of the filter and intake interior and throttle body.